Question 1

What is the current probability for "30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 4, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "30Y US Treasury yield on Aug 4, 2026?" are 5.17% or above 93%, 5.15% or above 91%, 5.21% or above 77% — 2 of 15 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 8/6/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXUST30AD-26AUG04. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.