Question 1

What is the current probability for "5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 4, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Kalshi odds for "5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 4, 2026?": 4.31% or above 95%, 4.35% or above 90%, 4.37% or above 76% (top 3 of 15 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 8/6/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXUST5AD-26AUG04. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.