Question 1

What is the current probability for "5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 18, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Kalshi outcomes for "5Y US Treasury yield on Aug 18, 2026?" are 4.33% or above 87%, 4.37% or above 61%, 4.39% or above 45% — 6 of 15 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 8/20/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXUST5AD-26AUG18. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.