What is the current probability for "First Time Winner"?

"Yes" is currently 9% (-1pp in the last 24h) on Kalshi, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/3/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXWC1STTIMEWIN-26. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

First Time Winner

·Sports

▼ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$556.5k

vol 24h

$83.8k

spread

0.02

ends

Aug 3, 2026

Yes 9¢

No 91¢

If a country that has never won a Men's FIFA World Cup tournament wins the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market will resolve to Yes if the 2026 FIFA World Cup is won by a nation that has never previously won a Men's FIFA World Cup tournament. Countries that have previously won a FIFA World Cup: Argentina France Germany Spain Italy Brazil Uruguay England If any nation not listed above wins the 2026 World Cup, the market will resolve to Yes. If any of the eight countries listed win the 2026 World Cup, the market will resolve to No. This market and these products have not been endorsed by FIFA. Any references to "FIFA", the "FIFA World Cup," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between FIFA and Kalshi.

timeline

opened · May 7, 2026opencloses · Aug 3, 2026

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