What is the current probability for "BTC Up or Down - Daily"?

"Yes" is currently 33% (-10pp in the last 24h) on Limitless, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/19/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from limitless's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/limitless/365097. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

BTC Up or Down - Daily

33%

▼ 9.8pp

24h change

vol cum

$211.8k

vol 24h

$83.1k

spread

n/a

ends

Aug 19, 2026

Yes 33¢

No 67¢

This market will resolve to "Up" if the price for Pyth Pro BTC/USD on August 19, 2026, at 16:00 UTC is strictly higher than the price for Pyth Pro BTC/USD on August 18, 2026, at 16:00 UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The price for Pyth Pro BTC/USD captured on August 18, 2026, at 16:00 UTC was $64,808.01760225. Resolution source: Pyth Pro BTC/USD price feed. Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used. If Pyth Pro is briefly missing data at exactly 16:00 UTC on August 19, 2026, the next available Pyth Pro price within 5 seconds will be used for the affected timestamp. In the rare event of a longer Pyth Pro outage, the market will be resolved manually by the Limitless team using the closest available Pyth Pro price.

DailyLumyRecurring

timeline

opened · Aug 18, 2026closing sooncloses · Aug 19, 2026

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