Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of any of the charges he was detained for on the 29th of December 2022"?

Accepted Answer

"YES" is currently 43% (+2pp in the last 24h) on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 12/29/2027.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/2Wx2ffQzuM28HjWNMcit. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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