What is the current probability for "Will a millennium problem be solved in 2026?"?

"YES" is currently 80% (+59pp in the last 24h) on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jan 1, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/2snNALshs8. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.