Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Javier Milei finish his first term as the president of Argentina?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Will Javier Milei finish his first term as the president of Argentina?": Yes, and he will be re-elected. 58%, Yes, but he will not be re-elected. 39%, No, he will not finish his first term. 3% (top 3 of 3 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 10/21/2027.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/4RpVk4SXpm9lcpgprvPr. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Will Javier Milei finish his first term as the president of Argentina?

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