What is the current probability for "Opus 5.2 released in September?"?

"YES" is currently 14% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Sep 30, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/5gLqZ9hdIp. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Opus 5.2 released in September?

·Culture

14%

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M12.6k

vol 24h

M10.7k

spread

n/a

ends

Sep 30, 2026

YES 14¢

NO 86¢

[tweet][tweet][tweet]Token Gremlin (@TokenGremlin) on X Chetaslua (@chetaslua) on X Vidhi (@vidhiparmarr) on X Pradeep Kapoor (@pradeepXkapoor) on X Just a dragon (@Waguri_Kaoruko8) on X Many people are hyping up Opus 5.2. Will it come out this month? Must be called Opus 5.2, Opus 5.1 or Sonnet 5.2 dont count

timeline

opened · Sep 16, 2026opencloses · Sep 30, 2026