What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?
As of 23:40 UTC on 7 Nov 2026, “National coalition” leads “What will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?” on Manifold at 87%, followed by “Labour coalition” at 12% and “No government formed” at 1%, out of 4 outcomes. The event has M$15.3k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
Resolves to the first government formation after the next New Zealand election (if it's postponed beyond 2026, resolves to the next election after that). "Other" might include a grand coalition containing both National and Labour, or a government of small parties without either major party. Labour/National need not be the largest party in their coalition for their respective options to resolve, and they may govern alone. "No government formed" means that a new election happens without a non-caretaker government being formed. Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Coalition governments include: Minority governments Governments supported by confidence and supply arrangements Any arrangement where a party or parties form the government, regardless of whether they hold a majority