🔮🌊 Will America get MORE WOKE in 2026? 🏳️⚧️✨
This market resolves YES if the unweighted average of the "Pro-Woke" responses to the following 5 recurring polling questions in 2026 is at least 2.0 percentage points higher than the 2025 Composite Baseline (52.6%). If the 2026 average is < 54.6%, the market resolves NO. The "Woke Vibe" Index Criteria The index is composed of 5 specific metrics from Gallup and PRRI. Each metric measures a different facet of "woke" culture (Gender, Race, Corporate/Economic Values). 1. The Trans Acceptance Rebound Poll: Gallup Values and Beliefs (May/June release) Question: "Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal... please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable... Changing one’s gender." 2025 Baseline: 40% (Source: Gallup, June 12, 2025) Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke". 2. The "Systemic Racism" Acknowledgement Poll: PRRI American Values Survey or major topical report (Sept/Oct or April release) Question: Agreement that "Generations of slavery and discrimination against Black people and Native Americans have given white people unfair economic advantages." 2025 Baseline: 51% (Source: PRRI "Democracy at a Crossroads", April 2, 2025) Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke". 3. The "Toxic Masculinity" Rejection Poll: PRRI American Values Survey (Sept/Oct release) Question: Disagreement with the statement: "Society as a whole has become too soft and feminine." 2025 Baseline: 54% (Source: PRRI AVS, Oct 31, 2025) Woke Direction: Higher (Disagreement) is "Woke". 4. The "Rainbow Norms" Check Poll: Gallup Values and Beliefs (May release) Question: Moral acceptability of "Gay or lesbian relations." 2025 Baseline: 64% (Source: Gallup, May 29, 2025) Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke". 5. The "Climate Priority" Metric Poll: Gallup Environment (March/April release) Question: "Protection of the environment should be given priority, even at the risk of curbing economic growth." 2025 Baseline: 54% (Source: Gallup, March 2025) Woke Direction: Higher is "Woke". If a poll question is not asked by the end of 2026 for whatever reason, the poll will be excluded from this market's resolution. If 3/5 of the questions used to resolve the market are unavailable in this fashion, the entire market will N/A. Once the PRRI poll is available, this market will resolve. This poll came out in the second half of October for the last two years; I have set the close date accordingly.
