Question 1

What is the current probability for "What will trump say this month? (Kalshi)"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Manifold outcomes for "What will trump say this month? (Kalshi)" are Crypto / Bitcoin 20%, UFO / UAP 13%, Moscow 9% — 12 of 20 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 6/30/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/L5Ld9C5dyR. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.