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Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
United States
18%
▲ 0.9pp
24h change
vol cum
M54.1k
vol 24h
M304
spread
n/a
ends
Nov 15, 2026
YES 18¢
NO 82¢
Resolves to YES if the Republican Party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives in the November 2026 elections. This can include independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats (in the same way that the party's Senate majority relies on independent senators). It doesn't matter if a Democrat actually becomes Speaker, only who wins more than half the seats in the election.
us-politics2024-matt-yglesias-predictionspolitics-default2026-us-congressional-elections
timeline
opened · May 17, 2026opencloses · Nov 15, 2026