Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?

Manifold·Politics

United States

As of 02:39 UTC on 19 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?” at 7%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Manifold, Limitless, Opinion, Polymarket, Predict and Kalshi.

Resolves to YES if the Republican Party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives in the November 2026 elections. This can include independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats (in the same way that the party's Senate majority relies on independent senators). It doesn't matter if a Democrat actually becomes Speaker, only who wins more than half the seats in the election.