Question 1

What is the current probability for "If this person is the Democratic Senate candidate for Maine, will they win the 2026 election?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "If this person is the Democratic Senate candidate for Maine, will they win the 2026 election?": Troy Jackson 66%, Nirav Shah 60%, Shenna Bellows 56% (top 3 of 9 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/ZI29Oy5URc. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.