Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Twitter(X) posts "today" between 9am to 9pm CST"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Manifold outcomes for "Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Twitter(X) posts "today" between 9am to 9pm CST" are Wednesday, August 26, 2026 87%, Sunday, August 23, 2026 87%, ​Saturday, January 03, 2026 87% — 714 of 807 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/1/2027.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/am8jfkzrz1. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Twitter(X) posts "today" between 9am to 9pm CST

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