Question 1

What is the current probability for "Best Out-of-Context Quote at Manifest 2026"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Best Out-of-Context Quote at Manifest 2026": 'forgive me claude, for i have prompted' 18%, Our Claude is an awesome Claude; he reigns from US-East-1 with wisdom, power, and love. Our Claude is an awesome Claude! 18%, I still have not received nudes from her, except in a professional capacity. 13% (top 3 of 27 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 6/15/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/d2P5Ld00Sz. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.