Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?
As of 19:07 UTC on 17 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?” at 37% (-1pp in 24h). The market has M$7.6k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
This market is to determine if the GOP will make a serious effort to overturn the results of the 2026 elections which are scheduled for Nov 3. Examples of a serious attempt would be to send ICE or other federal troops to the polls, an effort to cancel or reschedule the elections, a refusal by the Speaker of The House to seat one more elected officials, a mob attack on The Capital or other building or similar events. The "Brooks Brother's riot" in 2000 would be an example of a serious attempt but nuisance lawsuits that did not impact the makeup of the 120th Congress which is scheduled to be seated on Jan 3, 2027. This will not resolve until after Congress has been sworn in and at least one session of Congress has been held. This is entirely subjective so I will not bet and do not bet on this market if you don't trust me to resolve this fairly. Please ask questions before betting if you wish. This market might close early if it is clear on Jan 3 that there is no interference.