US Midterms MEGA Market
As of 03:11 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, the highest-priced of the 34 markets in “US Midterms MEGA Market” on Manifold are “Democrats win 52 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)” at 96%, “Abdul el Sayed wins by 1.5% or more” at 93% and “Democrats win 53 senate seats or more (resolves on ap projections)” at 92%. The event has M$11.7k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
Check out: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Jack1/how-many-house-seats-will-the-democ-t6tdp9P6q0)Resolves according to major media reporting and race calls(such as associated press). If needed, wait for official results. Clarifications: Any senate election has margin of victory of 0.5% or less. Resolves on deciding round if ranked choice/runoff Any senate candidate wins with 47% or less of the vote. Resolves based on deciding round result if runoff/ranked Any senate race NOT called by the associated press 2 days after polls closed? Resolves based on poll closing time in the state, by the latest poll closing time Any Republican held senate seat is called by the associated press within 2 minutes of polls closing in the state. Resolves based on final poll closing Abdul El Sayed wins by more than Peggy Flanagan does in Minnesota? (If one/both lose, resolves if Abdul performs better than Peggy) A Tweet from @AbdulElSayed/ @jamestalarico gets 500k+ likes within 24 hours. (Must be posted before end of a Nov 8 eastern time. Must be from that specific account. Must be posted after polls close on election day in their state. Includes Quote Tweets they post. House/senate totals resolve on news media projections, like AP/NBC, and party changes will not change the result. Eg. If Dems win 53 senate seats in the election, and Fetterman switches leaving them with 52 seats, it counts as them winning 53 for this market. Update 2026-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer regarding Republican senate candidates claiming the election was stolen, "the election" refers to their own election.