Fed decision in October?
As of 02:51 UTC on 24 Oct 2026, “No change” leads “Fed decision in October?” on Manifold at 92%, followed by “Increase (25 bps or more)” at 7% and “Decrease (25 bps or more)” at 0%, out of 3 outcomes. The event has M$9.4k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
This market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate from its level immediately before the October 2026 FOMC meeting. The outcome is determined by the net basis-point change announced in the official March FOMC statement. If the Fed changes the rate by an amount not matching a displayed option, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 bps for resolution (e.g., a 12.5 bps move is treated as 25 bps). Resolution Sources: The official FOMC statement for the September2026 meeting: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The Federal Reserve’s published target rate level and changes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm This market may resolve as soon as the March FOMC statement is released. If no statement is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves “No change.”