🎮Which of these 100 video games will release LAST (or after 2040) in chronological order? (23 DONE)
As of 15:58 UTC on 28 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 104 markets in “🎮Which of these 100 video games will release LAST (or after 2040) in chronological order? (23 DONE)” on Manifold are “Left 4 Dead 3” at 94%, “Portal 3” at 91% and “Team Fortress 3” at 90%. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Kalshi, Manifold, Gemini and Predict.
README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards: 1st event: 1% (happens soonest) 2nd event: 2% (happens next) ... 100th event: 100% (happens latest) Any games not released before Jan 1st 2040 will resolve 100% YES. Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For "Gears of War 6", the release of Gears of War: E-Day (the next mainline installment) will be treated as that answer's release, even though the title differs. Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Open developer preview/alpha builds that are not officially labeled as beta releases or full releases may not count as a game's release date. The determination depends on whether it is: A live service game Being sold yet How complete it is Games in early access programs may count depending on these factors. Update 2025-11-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Dynasty Warriors Origins will count as Dynasty Warriors 10 for resolution purposes. Update 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fable (2027) will count as Fable 4 for resolution purposes. Update 2026-10-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Hytale, the Early Access release on January 13, 2026 is considered early access rather than a full release, and therefore will not count as its release date for this market.
