Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?
As of 23:20 UTC on 29 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?” at 42%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, Myriad and Predict.
Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives. (This is intended to capture the spirit of "there were not just a couple of exceptional cases" and "there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system" and "they didn't just settle for 5%". Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)
