Question 1

What is the current probability for "How will Manifold die?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "How will Manifold die?": People lose interest in it and stop using the site 14%, Founders are disappointed in slow/no/negative growth and shut Manifold down. 11%, Bought by a large corporation but later shut down for not being profitable 9% (top 3 of 21 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 4/21/3069.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/nYzYZ5kijcIpfHZOCe1F. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

How will Manifold die?

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