What is the current probability for "US Average Gas Price Is $4.3800 or more on October 5 2026?"?

"YES" is currently 42% (+14pp in the last 24h) on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Oct 3, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/qh0ssI85UZ. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

p|datav0.1 news248

soontrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

US Average Gas Price Is $4.3800 or more on October 5 2026?

·Politics

42%

▲ 14.3pp

24h change

vol cum

M24.7k

vol 24h

M11.4k

spread

n/a

ends

Oct 3, 2026

YES 42¢

NO 58¢

https://gasprices.aaa.com/ [link preview]regular, current avg on october 5 2026.

timeline

opened · Oct 2, 2026closing sooncloses · Oct 3, 2026

US Average Gas Price Is $4.3800 or more on October 5 2026? · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history

similar markets

No similar markets for sports & price markets.