When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 11/15/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/s6IEnP0Ig8. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

↗

marketsingle market

Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?

Q: What is the current probability for "Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?"?

"YES" is currently 88% (-1pp in the last 24h) on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

·Politics

United States

88%

▼ 1.2pp

24h change

vol cum

M69.6k

vol 24h

M22

spread

n/a

ends

Nov 15, 2026

YES 88¢

NO 12¢

Resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives in the November 2026 elections. This can include independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats (in the same way that the party's Senate majority relies on independent senators). It doesn't matter if a Democrat actually becomes Speaker, only who wins more than half the seats in the election.

us-politics2024-matt-yglesias-predictionspolitics-default2026-us-congressional-elections

timeline

opened · Jun 12, 2025opencloses · Nov 15, 2026

Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections? · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history