Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
As of 14:46 UTC on 26 Oct 2026, “Hung Knesset (political deadlock)” leads “Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?” on Manifold at 51% (+6pp in 24h), followed by “Gadi Eizenkot” at 31% (-5pp in 24h) and “Benjamin Netanyahu” at 15% (-1pp in 24h), out of 7 outcomes. The event has M$4.3k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially sworn in as the Prime Minister of Israel by the Knesset following the next legislative election (scheduled for October 27, 2026, or sooner if a snap election is triggered beforehand). "Sworn In" Definition: The resolution will be determined by the first person who successfully forms a government and takes the oath of office in the Knesset. In the event of a rotational premiership agreement, the individual who serves as Prime Minister first will be the resolving winner. Hung Knesset: This option will resolve to YES if the Knesset elected in the next election fails to form a governing coalition within the legally mandated timeframe. A caretaker Prime Minister continuing to serve in an interim capacity during this political deadlock does not count as being sworn in for a new term. Sources of Truth: Official Knesset announcements (knesset.gov.il) and major Israeli media outlets (e.g., The Times of Israel, Haaretz, The Jerusalem Post). Background The next Israeli legislative election is scheduled for October 27, 2026. Under Israel's parliamentary system, voters elect lists of political parties to the 120-seat Knesset. Following the election, the President assigns the task of forming a government to a Knesset member who must assemble a coalition commanding at least 61 seats.