What is the current probability for "Who will win the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 2026 Senate election?"?

Current Manifold odds for "Who will win the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 2026 Senate election?": Abdul El-Sayed 92%, Haley Stevens 8%, Other 0% (top 3 of 5 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/7/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/uN0PA9UtQl. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

↗

event5 outcomes

Who will win the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 2026 Senate election?

·Politics·ends Aug 7, 2026

vol cum

M38k

vol 24h

M10.1k

outcomes

ends

Aug 7, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

Incumbent Democratic Senator from Michigan Gary Peters, whose seat is up for re-election in 2026, has surprisingly decided not to seek reelection. Who will replace him as the Democrats' nominee? Feel free to add answers, especially since the candidate field has yet to be determined at time of market creation. Question will be resolved upon the completion of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary. I reserve the right to change the closing date to reflect the Democratic primary schedule. I may bet in this market.

us-politicsdemocratic-party2026-us-electionpolitics-default2024-us-presidential-election

marketselected outcome

Abdul El-Sayed

rank #1

92¢

▼ 3.5pp

24h change

vol cum

M21.7k

vol 24h

—

spread

n/a

ends

Aug 7, 2026

timeline

opened · Aug 5, 2026opencloses · Aug 7, 2026

Abdul El-Sayed · prices over time

−24h

now

no price history yet

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

opentrade on Manifold

↗

event5 outcomes

Who will win the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 2026 Senate election?

·Politics·ends Aug 7, 2026

vol cum

M38k

vol 24h

M10.1k

outcomes

ends

Aug 7, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

us-politicsdemocratic-party2026-us-electionpolitics-default2024-us-presidential-election

marketselected outcome

Abdul El-Sayed

rank #1

92¢

▼ 3.5pp

24h change

vol cum

M21.7k

vol 24h

—

spread

n/a

ends

Aug 7, 2026

timeline

opened · Aug 5, 2026opencloses · Aug 7, 2026

Abdul El-Sayed · prices over time

−24h

now

no price history yet

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history