Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
As of 19:16 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, “Democrats Sweep” leads “Who controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?” on Manifold at 67% (-1pp in 24h), followed by “R Senate, D House” at 25% (+1pp in 24h) and “Republicans Sweep” at 7%, out of 5 outcomes. The event has M$148 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 19 related events on Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket and Opinion.
This market will resolve based on the outcome of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have control of the House of Representatives if it secures a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have control of the Senate if it holds: A majority of voting Senate seats, or Exactly half of the seats plus the Vice Presidency (which casts tie-breaking votes). A candidate’s party affiliation is determined by how they are listed on the ballot or their clearly identifiable public affiliation at the time the 2026 midterm results are called. Candidates not formally affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered aligned with one based on their publicly declared intent to caucus. If control of the House is unclear under the above rules, control will be determined by the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the House elected after the 2026 midterms. If control of the Senate is unclear, it will be determined by the party affiliation of the first Senate Majority Leaderelected after the 2026 midterms. This market will resolve once Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC News have all conclusively called the outcomes of both chambers. If these sources do not reach consensus, the market will resolve based on the results certified by official government sources.
