How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold? (Weeks)
Source: manifold·Event ID: yZtIdl6R9E·Ends:
[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst. If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): 0.5 weeks is measured as 3 full days and 12 hours. Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The dates/times for each option are listed in PST. Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Wikipedia article on the 2026 Iran war ceasefire will be used as the source for determining whether the ceasefire is still holding. Update 2026-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the war ends entirely, that also counts as the ceasefire holding, even if Wikipedia lists a war-ending date on the ceasefire article.
Markets
5 weeks+ (May 26th, 1pm)
- YES: 99¢
- NO: 1¢
5.5 weeks+ (May 30th, 1am)
- YES: 88¢
- NO: 12¢
6 weeks+ (June 2nd, 1pm)
- YES: 86¢
- NO: 14¢
6.5 weeks+ (June 6th, 1am)
- YES: 83¢
- NO: 17¢
7 weeks+ (June 9th, 1pm)
- YES: 80¢
- NO: 20¢
7.5 weeks+ (June 13th, 1am)
- YES: 76¢
- NO: 24¢
4 weeks+ (May 19th, 1pm)
- YES: 100¢
- NO: 0¢
3 weeks+ (May 12th, 1pm)
- YES: 100¢
- NO: 0¢
3.5 weeks+ (May 16th, 1am)
- YES: 100¢
- NO: 0¢
4.5 weeks+ (May 23rd, 1am)
- YES: 99¢
- NO: 1¢