What is the current probability for "What policies will Zohran Mamdani implement?"?

Current Manifold odds for "What policies will Zohran Mamdani implement?": Any policies that in line of requirement for all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age 91%, Change how caseworkers, inspectors, teachers, social workers handle things within existing law 89%, Creating the Department of Community Safety 78% (top 3 of 12 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/26/2029.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/zZu6zqS02L. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event12 outcomes

What policies will Zohran Mamdani implement?

·Politics·ends Jan 26, 2029

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Resolves according to my personal opinion on whether each measure has been implemented, I will not trade in this market. Please yell at me in the comments if I forget not to make trades. Individual answers will reolve N/A if the policy described in the answer was already in place before Mamdani became mayor and he did not advance new policies in addition to those. Update 2025-06-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question, the creator specified that for the 'free city buses' option to be considered implemented, it would require all city buses to be made free. Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the 'Free childcare in NYC' option, the creator has clarified that for it to resolve to YES, the program must be universal. This reverses a previous clarification and is based on the creator's stated intent for the market to track the fulfillment of campaign promises. Update 2025-10-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that policies will be considered for resolution based on implementation whenever Zohran Mamdani leaves office (if he becomes mayor). There is no specific deadline within his term for policies to be implemented. Update 2025-11-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "Any policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age" to resolve YES, children must be required (obligated) to learn Arabic numerals. Since pre-K is not obligatory in NYC, policies affecting only pre-K would not meet this requirement. Update 2025-11-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "Any policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age", this is asking: will there be more new policies focusing on early-age teaching of Arabic numerals?

zohran-mamdani2025-nyc-electionsnew-york-citynew-yorknyc

marketselected outcome

Any policies that in line of requirement for all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age

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