Who will be caught insider trading in prediction markets?
Source: manifold·Event ID: zzEngIqPLC·Ends:
A member of the listed organization must be penalized. The action must be a substantial action, including a fine, ban from a prediction market, termination, demotion, etc. A warning is not sufficient. If any other regulator such as the SEC or CFTC takes significant action, also resolves YES. If an exchange takes action, also resolves YES. The enforcement action must take place from market open to EOY 2026. The insider trading action can occur at any time before market close.
Markets
Google
- YES: 99¢
- NO: 1¢
SpaceX
- YES: 39¢
- NO: 61¢
Any US Military branch
- YES: 100¢
- NO: 0¢
Other
- YES: 65¢
- NO: 35¢
Any Israeli military branch (After Feb 27)
- YES: 57¢
- NO: 43¢
OpenAI (After Feb. 27)
- YES: 39¢
- NO: 61¢
KPMG
- YES: 36¢
- NO: 64¢
The White House
- YES: 35¢
- NO: 65¢
Mr. Beast (After Feb. 27)
- YES: 34¢
- NO: 66¢
Amazon
- YES: 33¢
- NO: 67¢
xAI
- YES: 26¢
- NO: 74¢
Anthropic
- YES: 13¢
- NO: 87¢