What is the current probability for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"?

The contested Opinion outcomes for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" are Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 41%, Gavin Newsom 23%, J.B. Pritzker 19% — 2 of 15 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Nov 7, 2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from opinion's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/opinion/380. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Opinion

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event15 outcomes

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

·Politics·ends Nov 7, 2028

vol cum

$16.9M

vol 24h

$294.7k

outcomes

ends

Nov 7, 2028

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 15

marketselected outcome

Mark Kelly

rank #1

United States

99¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$12.4k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

timeline

opened · Feb 15, 2026opencloses

Mark Kelly · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

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