What is the current probability for "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner"?

Current Opinion odds for "2026 FIFA World Cup Winner": France 40%, Argentina 19%, Spain 16% (top 3 of 15 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/20/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from opinion's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/opinion/79. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Opinion

↗

event15 outcomes

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

·Sports·ends Jul 20, 2026

vol cum

$122M

vol 24h

$10.1k

outcomes

ends

Jul 20, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 15

marketselected outcome

France

rank #1

40¢

▲ 8.7pp

24h change

vol cum

$2.3M

vol 24h

$13

spread

n/a

ends

—

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Nov 2, 2025opencloses

France · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

similar markets

No similar markets for sports & price markets.