What is the current probability for "Will Polymarket launch a token by...?"?

Current Opinion odds for "Will Polymarket launch a token by December 31, 2026?": December 31, 2026 20%, September 30, 2026 6%, June 30, 2026 1% (top 3 of 5 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from opinion's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/opinion/99. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Opinion

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event5 outcomes

Will Polymarket launch a token by...?

·Crypto·ends Jan 1, 2027

vol cum

$148.8M

vol 24h

$11.9k

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

marketselected outcome

December 31, 2026

rank #1

20¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$9.6M

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Polymarket officially launches a token on or before the specified deadline at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Polymarket (https://x.com/Polymarket), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

timeline

opened · Nov 17, 2025opencloses

December 31, 2026 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history