Will Reps lose Senate Seat in any Trump+10 State and win in a Kamala State?
As of 20:01 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, Polymarket prices “Will Reps lose Senate Seat in any Trump+10 State and win in a Kamala State?” at 42%. The market has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republican candidates both 1) win one or more Senate races in states won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential Election and 2) lose one or more Senate races in states won by Donald Trump with a margin of victory of 10 or more percentage points in the 2024 Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. A candidate will be considered to be a Republican if they are the nominee of or have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. The margin of victory in a given state in the 2024 Presidential election is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-and second-place candidates in that state. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate are determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. In the event that the winner of an election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that election will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
