As of 01:10 UTC on 7 Oct 2026, “Four” leads “How long will downtown LA's 100°F streak last?” on Polymarket at 97% (+47pp in 24h), followed by “Six” at 3% (-47pp in 24h) and “Seven or more” at 1% (-49pp in 24h), out of 4 outcomes. The event has $2.1k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Kalshi, Gemini, Polymarket and Predict.
This market resolves according to the length, in consecutive calendar days, of the streak of days with a daily maximum temperature of 100°F or higher at Downtown Los Angeles that began on October 2, 2026. The streak ends on the first calendar day on which the daily maximum temperature is below 100°F, and this market resolves to the total number of consecutive days in the streak. The streak had already reached four days when this market was created, so it cannot total fewer than four.
A daily maximum of exactly 100°F extends the streak. For example, if the daily maximum is 100°F on October 6 and 99°F on October 7, the streak totals five days and this market resolves to "Five". "Seven or more" resolves to "Yes" if the streak reaches seven days or longer.
The resolution source for this market will be the daily maximum temperature (the "MAX" column) for Downtown Los Angeles in the National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard Preliminary Local Climatological Data report, available at https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOX&issuedby=CQT&product=CF6. Values are published in whole degrees Fahrenheit and are used exactly as published, with no rounding or adjustment. Readings from any other Los Angeles station, including Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), do not count. The report is preliminary; this market will not resolve until two days after the streak-ending day's value is published, and any correction issued in that window governs.
