As of 08:34 UTC on 18 Oct 2026, “0-3 points behind” leads “Abdul El-Sayed runs behind Jocelyn Benson by...?” on Polymarket at 32% (+11pp in 24h), followed by “6-9 points behind” at 26% (-5pp in 24h) and “3-6 points behind” at 21%, out of 5 outcomes. The event has $40 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold and Gemini.
vol cum
$540
vol 24h
$40
outcomes
5
ends
Nov 4, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
SenatemidtermPoliticsmichiganAbdul El-SayedJocelyn BensonMargin of Victory
marketselected outcome
0-3 points behind
rank #1
United States
P
32¢
▲ 11.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$264
vol 24h
$20
spread
0.13
ends
Nov 4, 2026
The 2026 Michigan general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Michigan, and Jocelyn Benson is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Michigan.
This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Abdul El-Sayed’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan U.S. Senate election falls below Jocelyn Benson’s vote share in the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. If El-Sayed’s vote share exceeds Benson’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”.
Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing the named candidate and at least one other candidate.
If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.”
If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote.
The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Michigan Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.