What will the biggest earthquake be on October 16, 2026?

99¢

▲ 1.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$650

vol 24h

$0

spread

0.02

ends

Oct 17, 2026

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 16, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 16, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 17, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered. If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 16, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 17, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket. The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.