As of 16:57 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, “<8” leads “How many UKMTO notices October 19–25?” on Polymarket at 72% (-6pp in 24h), followed by “8-11” at 13% (+2pp in 24h) and “12-15” at 9% (-2pp in 24h), out of 5 outcomes. The event has $517 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Limitless.
vol cum
$5.2k
vol 24h
$517
outcomes
5
ends
Oct 26, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
IranHormuztankerGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
marketselected outcome
<8
rank #1
United Kingdom
72¢
▼ 6.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$2.3k
vol 24h
$401
spread
0.10
ends
Oct 26, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page.
All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before October 19, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once.
Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO.
Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources.
This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after October 25, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period.
The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. If that page is unavailable, notices published through UKMTO's official channels may be used.
