What will the biggest earthquake be on October 21, 2026?
Polymarket·Climate and Weather·ends Oct 22, 2026
As of 05:29 UTC on 20 Oct 2026, “6.1 or more” leads “What will the biggest earthquake be on October 21, 2026?” on Polymarket at 24%, followed by “5.5 to 5.6” at 17% (-1pp in 24h) and “5.3 to 5.4” at 16% (-1pp in 24h), out of 6 outcomes. The event has $290 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini.
vol cum
$300
vol 24h
$290
outcomes
6
ends
Oct 22, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 6
WeatherEarthquakesHide From New
marketselected outcome
6.1 or more
rank #1
24¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$70
vol 24h
$70
spread
0.01
ends
Oct 22, 2026
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 21, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 21, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.
If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 22, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.
If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.
If no earthquake data for October 21, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 22, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
