What will the biggest earthquake be on October 24, 2026?
Polymarket·Climate and Weather·ends Oct 25, 2026
As of 07:46 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, “6.1 or more” leads “What will the biggest earthquake be on October 24, 2026?” on Polymarket at 24%, followed by “Under 5.3” at 18% and “5.5 to 5.6” at 18%, out of 6 outcomes. The event has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Gemini.
vol cum
$300
vol 24h
$0
outcomes
6
ends
Oct 25, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 6
WeatherEarthquakesHide From New
marketselected outcome
6.1 or more
rank #1
24¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$50
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.01
ends
Oct 25, 2026
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 24, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 24, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.
If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 25, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.
If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.
If no earthquake data for October 24, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 25, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
