As of 15:20 UTC on 30 Oct 2026, “No Change” leads “ECB Interest Rates: February 2027” on Polymarket at 72% (-4pp in 24h), followed by “25 bps increase” at 14% (-34pp in 24h) and “50+ bps increase” at 10% (-17pp in 24h), out of 5 outcomes. The event has $3.5k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the February 2027 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its February 2027 meeting, scheduled for February 3 and February 4, 2027, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's February 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
