What will the biggest earthquake be on November 1, 2026?
Polymarket·Climate and Weather·ends Nov 2, 2026
As of 11:17 UTC on 31 Oct 2026, “Under 5.3” leads “What will the biggest earthquake be on November 1, 2026?” on Polymarket at 50% (+24pp in 24h), followed by “5.3 to 5.4” at 50% and “5.5 to 5.6” at 50%, out of 6 outcomes. The event has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket and Kalshi.
vol cum
$0
vol 24h
$0
outcomes
6
ends
Nov 2, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 6
WeatherEarthquakesHide From New
marketselected outcome
Under 5.3
rank #1
50¢
▲ 24.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$0
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.97
ends
Nov 2, 2026
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 1, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on November 1, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.
If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.
If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.
If no earthquake data for November 1, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 2, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
