event6 outcomes

November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Polymarket·Climate and Weather·ends Jan 2, 2027

As of 23:04 UTC on 30 Oct 2026, “<1.35ºC” leads “November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)” on Polymarket at 49% (-1pp in 24h), followed by “1.40–1.44ºC” at 49% (-1pp in 24h) and “>1.54ºC” at 42% (-8pp in 24h), out of 6 outcomes. The event has $5k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.

vol cum

$5k

vol 24h

$5k

outcomes

ends

Jan 2, 2027

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showing 5 of 6

WeatherclimateRecurringGlobal Temptemperature

marketselected outcome

<1.35ºC

rank #1

49¢

▼ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$2k

vol 24h

$2k

spread

0.80

ends

Jan 2, 2027

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for November 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for November 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for November 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Nov" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for November 2026 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

timeline

opened · Oct 30, 2026opencloses · Jan 2, 2027

<1.35ºC · prices over time

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now

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