How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in November?
Polymarket·Economy·ends Dec 1, 2026
As of 01:53 UTC on 6 Nov 2026, the highest-priced of the 9 markets in “How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in November?” on Polymarket are “Below 4.82%” at 70% (+1pp in 24h), “Below 4.79%” at 63% (+2pp in 24h) and “Below 4.76%” at 57% (+7pp in 24h). The event has $2.3k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
vol cum
$3.5k
vol 24h
$2.3k
outcomes
9
ends
Dec 1, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 9
US CPIEconomyFinanceFed RatesRecurringTreasuries
marketselected outcome
Below 4.82%
rank #1
70¢
▲ 1.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$534
vol 24h
$327
spread
0.20
ends
Dec 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
