What will the biggest earthquake be on November 11, 2026?
Polymarket·Climate and Weather·ends Nov 12, 2026
As of 07:56 UTC on 10 Nov 2026, “Under 5.3” leads “What will the biggest earthquake be on November 11, 2026?” on Polymarket at 50% (+33pp in 24h), followed by “5.3 to 5.4” at 50% (+34pp in 24h) and “5.5 to 5.6” at 50% (+32pp in 24h), out of 6 outcomes. The event has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Gemini.
vol cum
$31
vol 24h
$0
outcomes
6
ends
Nov 12, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 6
WeatherEarthquakesHide From New
marketselected outcome
Under 5.3
rank #1
50¢
▲ 32.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$0
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.97
ends
Nov 12, 2026
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on November 11, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on November 11, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.
If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on November 12, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.
If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.
If no earthquake data for November 11, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on November 12, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.
