What is the current probability for "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?"?

"Yes" is currently 14% (-13pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/158505. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

·Crypto

14%

▼ 13.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$4.7M

vol 24h

$849k

spread

0.01

ends

Jan 1, 2027

Yes 14¢

No 87¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

CryptoTrumpPoliticsus lawCrypto LegalClarity Act

timeline

opened · Jan 11, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027

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