What is the current probability for "Starmer out by...?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Starmer out by July 31?": July 31 100%, August 31 100%, October 31 100% (top 3 of 19 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/17725. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

closedtrade on Polymarket

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event19 outcomes

Starmer out by...?

·Politics·ends Dec 31, 2026

vol cum

$38.2M

vol 24h

$3M

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 19

StarmerUKkeirGrooming GangsPoliticsWorldUK Labour Leadership

marketselected outcome

June 22

rank #4 · resolved: yes

United Kingdom

100¢

▲ 36.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.6M

vol 24h

$1.1M

spread

0.00

ends

Jun 22, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between market creation and June 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

timeline

opened · Jun 19, 2026closedresolved · Jun 22, 2026

June 22 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history