What is the current probability for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place": Flávio Bolsonaro 69%, Renan Santos 16%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 5% (top 3 of 18 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 10/4/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/204972. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event18 outcomes

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

·Politics·ends Oct 4, 2026

vol cum

$3.7M

vol 24h

$524

outcomes

ends

Oct 4, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 18

BrazilPoliticsWorldGlobal ElectionsElectionsInternational Election Props

marketselected outcome

Flávio Bolsonaro

rank #1

Brazil

69¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$63.8k

vol 24h

spread

0.01

ends

Oct 4, 2026

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

timeline

opened · Feb 11, 2026opencloses · Oct 4, 2026

prices over time · Flávio Bolsonaro highlighted

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history