What is the current probability for "Kash Patel out by...?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Kash Patel out by December 31?": December 31 21%, September 30 6%, August 31 2% (top 3 of 8 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/226019. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event8 outcomes

Kash Patel out by...?

·Politics·ends Dec 31, 2026

vol cum

$1.7M

vol 24h

$11.1k

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 8

PoliticsTrumpTrump Cabinet

marketselected outcome

December 31

rank #1

United States

21¢

▼ 5.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$341.6k

vol 24h

$11.1k

spread

0.02

ends

Dec 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Mar 30, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

December 31 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history