What is the current probability for "Next Senate Majority Leader?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Next Senate Majority Leader?": John Thune 41%, Chuck Schumer 30%, Brian Schatz 7% (top 3 of 15 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/3/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/289908. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event15 outcomes

Next Senate Majority Leader?

·Politics·ends Jan 3, 2027

vol cum

$99.5k

vol 24h

$5.1k

outcomes

ends

Jan 3, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 15

SenateElectionsMidtermsTrumpUS ElectionPoliticsCongressWorld Elections

marketselected outcome

John Thune

rank #1

United States

41¢

▼ 6.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$20.6k

vol 24h

$5k

spread

0.01

ends

Jan 3, 2027

This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

timeline

opened · Mar 23, 2026opencloses · Jan 3, 2027

John Thune · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history